| Pages in topic: < [1 2] | Poll: Work-wise, my prediction is that April for me will be: Thread poster: ProZ.com Staff
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| Predictive power | Apr 3, 2020 |
I’m always tickled when people make predictions about seasonal patterns and the state of the market or even just their own sales over the next month, given that we all have such limited data available to us.
We might know we’ll be busy if we already have four weeks’ work on our desks. We might guess things will be quieter as economic activity now subsides. But we are microbusinesses and our months can be transformed overnight from quiet to busy by a single unexpected job at an... See more I’m always tickled when people make predictions about seasonal patterns and the state of the market or even just their own sales over the next month, given that we all have such limited data available to us.
We might know we’ll be busy if we already have four weeks’ work on our desks. We might guess things will be quieter as economic activity now subsides. But we are microbusinesses and our months can be transformed overnight from quiet to busy by a single unexpected job at any time, whatever the climate.
Over 25 years, I can say there is a seasonal pattern to my workload, with summer being relatively quiet. But in probably ten of those years it has been really busy due to one-off projects. So it’s not a very useful observation.
And even if there is less work around, it doesn’t necessarily mean you will get less. There are too many factors involved.
So unless your business is incredibly badly balanced, with all your eggs in one broken basket, and you have literally zero promotional skills and are ultimately a really bad translator in the first place, this is not a time to be pessimistic but a time to be patient as the hard work you’ve put in over the years to build a reputation pays off. ▲ Collapse
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That's my prediction. I will be very happy if I'm wrong.
| | | | Dan Lucas 
United Kingdom
Local time: 07:13
Member (2014)
Japanese to English
| Ah, but it's not really prediction is it? | Apr 3, 2020 |
Chris S wrote:
I’m always tickled when people make predictions about seasonal patterns... given that we all have such limited data available to us.
No, you're incorrect on this one, which is unusual, so I'm going to shamelessly seize the opportunity to belabour you over the head with the obvious*. I agree that most things are hard to forecast - not that it stops people on the forum from making imprudent statements, viz "In 5years tranlsation as youknow it will be FINISHED!! Wake up sheeple! lol" - but by contrast the predictability of seasonal events is often quite good, precisely because by definition it comes round every x months or every year.
If I were to offer you a £10,000 bet that we will see a seasonal pickup in retail sales in December, would you take the other side of that wager? How about £50,000 on the likelihood that average UK temperatures in January will be lower than in July? Sure, this is a reductio ad absurdum to some extent, but the underlying point stands.
If a translator were to base their predictions on that kind of cyclical shift ("I specialise in home appliances, and I usually see an increase in requests related to heating equipment during the winter, so I'm pretty optimistic on demand from November onward"), they are more likely to be right than not. This isn't an exception to the rule that people can't forecast, because they are just harnessing the power of a well-understood cyclical mechanism with a relatively short period.
One of the reasons I felt confident in making finance an area of specialisation is that it has a powerful cyclical component, backed by statute in most countries. Any company of any size has to submit a report every quarter, six months, or twelve months, and those with international operations will often want it in English. I'd imagine regulation and monetary economics is similar.
Your points about patience and reputation are spot-on, though.
Dan
*As is my wont
| | | | Nathan Russell
Spain
Local time: 08:13
Member (2017)
Spanish to English
Justin Peterson wrote:
I live in Spain.
If we do not suffer a historic, crushing, cataclysmic depression ... I'll consider it a miracle.
I'm expecting an amount of work similar to what I would expect to have in August.
Hope you're well, Justin. (And I hope you're off the mark about a potential depression!)
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For the very first time in two years, I have been idle for a couple of hours. I have a project coming in this afternoon which will keep me busy for 1.5 day, but that's all for now! It feels strange and a bit scary to be honest :/
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